A PROCISSÃO DA CRISE AINDA VAI NO ADRO!

Banque mondiale et FMI peinent à faire concrétiser les promesses du G20

Mots clefs: economie ; finance ; bm ; fmi ; aide

26/04/2009 23:26

Les réunions de printemps de la Banque mondiale et du Fonds monétaire international, qui se sont achevées dimanche à Washington, ont révélé la difficulté de concrétiser les promesses du sommet du G20 de Londres dans la lutte contre la crise économique mondiale.

La principale avancée de ce sommet, qui avait été d'apporter plus de 1.100 milliards de dollars de ressources financières supplémentaires aux institutions multilatérales, dont la majeure partie au FMI, a fait l'objet d'un consensus.

Photo : Réunion du comité au développement de la Banque...

Photo : Lawrence Summers, principal conseiller économique...

Photo : Le président de la Banque africaine de...

Photo : Logos du groupe français BNP Paribas et de la...

Mais la présence des 185 Etats membres des deux institutions soeurs de Bretton Woods n'a pas permis d'enregistrer de nouvelle promesse de la part des gouvernements.

Dimanche, le Comité de développement s'est séparé sur un constat inquiétant, celui de la menace que représente la récession mondiale pour les habitants de la planète.

"L'économie mondiale s'est considérablement détériorée depuis notre dernière réunion (en octobre, ndlr). Cette évolution a des conséquences particulièrement graves dans les pays en développement où la crise financière et économique se transforme en catastrophe humaine et en désastre au plan du développement", a souligné le communiqué commun des deux institutions multilatérales.

Suivait cet appel pressant: "nous demandons instamment à tous les bailleurs de fonds de concrétiser plus rapidement la promesse qu'ils ont faite d'accroitre leur aide; nous devons quant à nous, examiner la possibilité d'aller au-delà de nos engagements actuels".

Le président de la Banque mondiale Robert Zoellick a constaté que les Objectifs du millénaire pour le développement, adoptés en 2000, et visant à réduire considérablement la pauvreté avant 2015 "ne devraient vraisemblablement pas être atteints pour la plupart".

Selon le FMI et la BM, "la crise a déjà fait basculer dans une extrême pauvreté plus de 50 millions de personnes, surtout des femmes et des enfants. Nous devons atténuer son impact sur les pays en développement et faciliter la contribution de ces derniers à une reprise mondiale".

"Personne ne sait combien de temps cette crise durera. Nous ne savons pas non plus à quel rythme se fera la reprise", a déclaré lors de la conférence de presse finale M. Zoellick.

Son ton tranchait avec l'optimisme des pays du G7 qui, deux jours plus tôt, avaient assuré que "l'activité économique devrait commencer à reprendre cette année".

Le directeur général du FMI Dominique Strauss-Kahn a pour sa part tiré un bilan très positif pour le Fonds. "Le mouvement, le changement au sein du FMI est maintenant, je pense, clairement reconnu par les Etats membres", selon lui.

En revanche, les montants engagés et la volonté politique pour renforcer le rôle de la Banque n'atteignent pas les moyens massifs placés par les pays riches et émergents du G20 dans le FMI, qui a regagné une légitimité inattendue.

Pour compenser, M. Zoellick a affirmé que son institution était "entrée dans cette crise bien capitalisée", et qu'elle aurait les moyens d'augmenter fortement son aide aux pays en développement.

Les organisations non gouvernementales ont regretté le peu d'avancées.

"La Banque et le FMI ont dit tout ce qui était juste (...) Il est fort décevant par conséquent que ces réunions se soient terminées sans qu'il y ait assez sur la table pour venir en aide aux pays pauvres", a estimé Oxfam dans un communiqué.

Mots clefs: economie ; finance ; bm ; fmi ; aide

NÃO À EXCISÃO

NÃO À EXCISÃO: Plantu no Le Monde, de 16.04.09

Na Coluna do Correio da Manhã

Ver claro

25 Abril 2009 - 00h30

 

Mudança radical. A China apresenta o pior resultado desde o seu take-off, a Índia entrou em instabilidade político-eleitoral, o G8 alerta para nova (...) Continua Na Coluna dos Sábados no Correio da Manhã

Os 'banksters'...

VER CLARO

Os 'banksters'... Muito revelador do estado actual dos espíritos (que, claro, não são santos) o neologismo americano que funde bankers (banqueiros)+gangsters!

Continua Na Coluna dos Sábados no Correio da Manhã

 

JOHN ROBB

PIRATES

Some thinking on Somali pirates:

• Seal snipers took out three Somali pirates and freed an American hostage held in a lifeboat.  What's interesting to me is the decision making process used to resolve this minor problem.  Here are some of the aspects.  Firstly, there was a timer on the hostage stand-off.  Other pirate groups/ships (an open source insurgency with commercial drivers) were en route to surround the lifeboat or take control of the hostages.  Secondly, this minor decision involved a highly centralized decision making loop that included the President, the Commander of CENTCOM, the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of State, the DoJ, and the White House/NSC -- just to pull the trigger on three kidnappers holding a hostage at gunpoint.  Lastly, one of the biggest fears of the US government is that these pirates would be arrested.  Why?  Since Somalia is a mess, they would become wards of the US, likely suffer only minimal jail time, and eventually end up applying for US citizenship.  
• The symbiosis between private insurance and privateering dominates.  If the company that owned the rescued ship wasn't a US defense contractor, its kidnapping insurance company (likely Lloyds) and its designated crisis representatives (likely Control Risks Group) would have negotiated to pay the pirate's fee to get the hostage back -- as are thousands of kidnappings from Mexico to Colombia to Nigeria to the Gulf of Aden are settled every year.  Somali pirates have made tens of millions this way already.  Further, in many parts of the world, kidnappers are almost never caught/killed (<5% in Mexico and the same is likely true for Somalia).  So, given this backdrop, the Navy's rescue effort was just a sideshow and the industry that made it possible will continue to grow rapidly.
• Dead end solutions dominate in great power capitals.  The most commonly suggested solutions, patrols by conventional navies and nation-building, aren't the answer.  Both are expensive and would be futile over the longer term.  The Pyrrhic solution that will eventually be adopted is a combination of A) funded militias (Somali anti-pirates that raid pirate dens) and B) business as usual (private sector management ala the symbiosis detailed above).  Might as well cut to the end game and quite the near term charade (I told this to the House Armed Services committee when I testified in early April).

NOTE:  In the comments on this post, "Moon" came up with a term:  The Somali Coast Guard, which may serve as a moniker for a militia effort.  How much would this cost?  

 

Let's do the numbers.  The short term "solution" that arrested Iraq's descent into state failure was an open source counter-insurgency (aka managed militias) called the Anbar Awakening (not the "surge," which was a costly PR stunt).   That program costs $30 million (plus administration) per month.  1/200 of the cost of maintaining US troops in theater (perversely, the US gov't has offloaded the administration and cost of this program to the Iraqi government, which because it sees the militias as disloyal, isn't paying them anymore -- ultimately, this will lead to a renewed descent into state failure).  A similar program in the Gulf of Aden, using Somali militias, would likely cost $2-3 m a month (guesstimate).  That's a small, small fraction of the cost of patrols by conventional navies and a infinitesimal fraction of what would be a failed nation-building effort in Somalia.  Granted, this is an extremely flawed solution (the militias will end up being lots of trouble), but it is going to be the one eventually adopted.  

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Posted by John Robb on Monday, 13 April 2009 at 08:01 AM | Permalink

 

 

JOHN ROBB E NASSIM TALEB: PERSPECTIVAS DA CRISE

THE INCREASING FREQUENCY OF BLACK SWANS

Black Swans (Nassim Taleb) are extreme events that have system wide consequences (9/11, the Internet, financial collapse, etc.). These events typically occur infrequently enough to escape near/mid term analytical methods (as in, most of our analysis is over time horizons that don't measure the occurrence or probability of these events).  As a result, we think Black Swans are exceedingly rare (as in, this can only happen once in a thousand years).  In contrast, Taleb's primary claim re: Black Swans is that they occur much more frequently than typical analysis indicates. Why?  The distributions of systemic outcomes aren't normal/Gaussian, but rather fat tailed (see graph inset).  This is a truism, Mandelbrot's work backs this up.  This led to the aha! moment that sold 1.5 million copies of his book. 

His and my second claim, and one that is harder to prove, is that there are reasons to believe that changes to the underlying global system have made these events much more likely (most worrisome, more prone to negative black swans).   

A systems approach, often discussed on this blog and by Taleb, argues that a combination of hyper-efficiency (JIT supply, financial flows, and tight coupling of all sorts), extreme leverage (high debt), and excessive complexity (derivatives, interlocked supply chains) have introduced dynamic instability into the global economic system.  That instability, if it isn't constantly corrected by an intelligent control system (if it is even possible to build one on a global scale), can lead to catastrophic failure.  For example, high performance aircraft are dynamically unstable by design.  They require constant sub-second control system inputs to bring them back into line or they become smoking craters or lawn darts.  

Another way to is to analyze the stability of our global system is to look at it as a network.  "Cascades of Failure and Extinction in Evolving Complex Systems"  2006, by Paul Ormerod and Rich Colbaugh is a good attempt at doing this.  They used autonomous agents with heterogenous measures of fitness (diversity of goals/needs) to model an evolving network (similar to our economy or global trading/financial system).  Unsurprisingly, they found as they scaled the connectivity of the network it became more fit.  Simply, it allowed each of the agents in the system to better meet their goals for fitness (health, wealth, etc.).  They also found that the network was also able to shrug off more small shocks than ever before (robustness increased).

  

However, this general improvement in fitness and resistance to minor shocks came at a cost.  The more highly connected the network became, the more prone it was to catastrophic failures/extinction events (fragility increased).  Worse, this relationship appears to be non-linear, in that with each increase in connectivity there is a accelerating increase in chance of catastrophic failure.

This is interesting from the perspective of societal decision making.  Improvements in robustness and increasing returns over the short to medium terms, drives society (from common wisdom to academic doctrines) to assume that our situation will/can only get better and better.  This experience has also led to the assumption that radical increases in connectivity (Internet, financial integration, etc.) will only accelerate this process of betterment.  However, network analysis indicates that these massive increases in connectivity have made the possibility of an extinction event (cataclysmic Black Swan) much, much higher than in the past.  Therefore, assumptions that we will eventually progress (something we have to assume), should be moderated by the fact that our future may be increasingly (more frequently) punctuated by periods of and extreme and prolonged system failure.  In that regard, the connectivity we have in this Century makes it truly unique in all of history, and therefore any comparisons to historical experience should be used with extreme caution.

NOTE:  Both Taleb and I conclude that the best way to deal with this risk is to simplify our global economic system.  Taleb recommends that we turn back the clock to a simpler time.  In contrast, I recommend that we organically evolve into a more efficient decentralized system that concentrates on community resilience.  Resilient communities involve intentional decentralization (lower connectivity or an ability to suffer a loss in connectivity without damage), which would radically reduce the chances that large network failures would result in cataclysmic black swans.  We would be able to reboot quickly and with little long term damage.

Posted by John Robb on Saturday, 11 April 2009 at 11:07 AM | Permalink | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0)

Géographie de la ville en guerre

DA FORMAÇÃO DO MUNDO

Realidade, mediatização, "actualidade" e percepção da violência, no mundo hipermediatizado deste início de século XXI ou como " cette (re)présentation médiatique sélective de l'information "formate " une image du monde"… Que, digo eu, se torna o mundo (possível) de quem assim o vê e o forma. Um problema (ou o seu quadro, apenas) da percepção do mundo, da formação do mundo de cada um e, portanto, uma questão de perceptions management…

 Les médias,  la violence,  l'événement  et  le haut-lieu

mercredi 8 avril 2009

Plusieurs billets de ce blog ont posé la question de la création de l'événement par le biais des médias et, à l'inverse, "l'oubli" de certaines informations devenues trop "ordinaires" pour devenir des actualités (sur)médiatisées. Le sensationnel fait-il (ou doit-il faire) l'actualité ? Cette question s'est posée, dans ce blog, autour des violences à Mitrovica (ville qui a "disparu" de l'actualité médiatique, à l'exception de quelques articles lors de "moments" forts tels que l'auto-proclamation de l'indépendance le 17 février 2008 et l'anniversaire de ce "événement"), mais également les violences dans la ville de Bagdad, devenues "ordinaires", non dans leur "réalité" mais dans la perception qu'en a l'opinion publique, dans la façon dont les lecteurs/téléspectateurs des médias occidentaux "reçoivent" cette information.

Cette (re)présentation médiatique sélective de l'information "formate" une image du monde : quels sont les moments qui nous sont montrés ? Que nous disent ces événements sur les menaces, les risques, les dangers dans le monde actuel ? Quels sont, au contraire, les moments qui nous sont "cachés", devenant ainsi des non-événements, non pour l'importance de l'action, mais parce que leur non-présentation les fait devenir de simples "faits ordinaires" ? Il y a des moments qui "méritent" (le mot est volontairement provocateur) de devenir des événements, tandis que d'autres peuvent être oubliés dans cette information, dans cette mise en scène des dangers du monde, rythmée par la vitesse et "l'immédiat".

Et les lieux ? Des zones, des pays, des régions entières sont absents de l'actualité. Ou peu (re)présentés : mardi 7 avril, des violences en Moldavie. Mais que sait-on le reste du temps de la Moldavie ? Comment analyser ces violences ? Sont-elles structurelles ou conjoncturelles ? Combien de personnes, tout simplement, savent placer la Moldavie sur une carte (sans être très précis : la Moldavie, c'est sur quel continent ?), ou connaissaient même avant-hier le nom de cet Etat ? Provocateurs, ces propos ? Peut-être pas tant que cela. En tout cas, il est sûr qu'il existe des faits et des lieux qui sont fortement médiatisés, et ainsi transformés en événements et en hauts-lieux, alors que d'autres sont "oubliés", comme "rayés" de la carte de notre imaginaire collectif.

Une étude sur les moments et les lieux (re)présentés dans les médias permettrait certainement de montrer de façon plus rigoureuse comment des faits et des lieux sont mis en scène ou au contraire ignorés par les médias. Les médias participent à notre représentation du monde (tout particulièrement dans ces dangers), mais parallèlement, ils répondent avant tout à la demande du public (la question de l'audimat ou des ventes), et donc montrent ce que l'opinion publique attend. C'est donc un double mouvement. Il s'agit là de montrer avant tout un problème : les médias, par leurs "sur-objets" et leurs "non-objets", entre surmédiatisation et oubli, formatent-ils notre conception du monde qui elle-même est déjà ancrée dans l'idée de menaces ?

 

in Géographie de la ville en guerre  Publié par Tratnjek Bénédicte à 11:31

O JOGO PERIGOSO DOS CHINESES

China-Iran File: Communist Party Protecting Nuclear-Arming Iran and Accused Smuggler

China Confidential has learned that the Chinese company that is accused by the Manhattan District Attorney in New York of misusing banks to supply banned weapons to Iran is protected by officials of China's Communist Party at high levels. The DA on Thursday announced a 118-count indictment against LIMMT Economic and Trade Company Ltd., and Li Fang Wei, commercial manager at the Dalian, China-based company.

LIMMT was sanctioned in 2006 by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control for providing material support for Iran's missile program.

China strongly opposes the indictment.

In the meantime, Beijing is strengthening relations with Iran and indicating its support for the nuclear-arming, Islamist nation.

A special commentary asks: "Will Iran, U.S. Have Direct Talks?"

The section titled "IRAN'S RESPONSES MIXING STRENGTH WITH GRACE" reflects China's pro-Iran policy (in spite of Beijing's trading relations with Israel).

"Compared to that of the United States, Iran's stance indicates a mixture of strength and grace," the article asserts.

The China View essay continues:

In the wake of the recent statements from the two countries, the international community has been watching closely to see whether official talk between the United States and Iran would take place and if it does, whether it could lead to substantial results.

From the two countries' declaration of positions to actually sitting at the negotiating table, there is still a long way to go, according to analysts. Especially for the United States, it is hard to tell whether the country can present the "sincerity" asked by Iran. Therefore, it is very likely for the two sides to have flip-flops on their positions on holding talks.

In fact, the long-standing confrontation between the two sides lies in that Iran insists that its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes, while the United States holds that it will lead to nuclear weapons.

With such a lack of trust, it is hard to tell whether Iran will sit at the negotiating table with the United States.

On the other hand, the Obama administration's extending of carrots to Iran still smacks of being coupled with sticks.

# posted by Confidential Reporter @ 6:03 PM links to this post

General Jaime Neves

VER CLARO

Jaime Neves. Em tempo de guerras assimétricas, violência viral e "disruptions", a experiência e know-how deste general são uma decisiva mais-valia, em qualquer dispositivo militar. Justo e racional este reconhecimento pela hierarquia do general dos comandos. Sem complexos, o governo fez o que se esperava, há um quarto de século, que um governo fizesse….

Continua Na Coluna dos Sábados no Correio da Manhã

FUNDOS SOBERANOS

Investigadora Portuguesa Citada em Relatório Parlamentar para Sarkozy

O trabalho da investigadora Alice Mateus, «Les fonds souverains, la conquête de la politique par la finance», desenvolvido no âmbito da École de Guerre Économique, em 2007 e sob a direcção de Christian Harbulot, director da EGE, constitui uma das bases do relatório parlamentar, para o Presidente Sarkozy, «Sortie de crise et capitalisme : comment attirer les capitaux et les fonds souverains en France?».

A Infoguerre realça que «Les députés Jean-Michel Fourgous (UMP, Yvelines) et Olivier Dassault (UMP, Oise) ont remis au Président de la République un rapport intitulé « Sortie de crise et capitalisme : comment attirer les capitaux et les fonds souverains en France ? ».

Ce rapport s'appuie en partie sur les travaux de l'Ecole de guerre économique, en citant l'étude Les fonds souverains, la conquête de la politique par la finance, publiée en décembre 2007.

Infoguerre.fr et l'EGE sont une nouvelle fois reconnus pour la qualité de leurs travaux, notamment sur les fonds souverains, qui participent à la réflexion nationale sur de nombreux sujets stratégiques.»

Alice Mateus veio a Lisboa apresentar, na Primavera 2008, este seu trabalho em conferência, na SEDES, sobre a irrupção dos FS na paisagem política, económica e empresarial.

Les fonds souverains, la conquête de la politique par la finance

José Adelino Maltez

A REVOLTA…

 

"…tudo aquilo que aprendi de penalismo constitucional com professores como Eduardo Correia, Figueiredo Dias, Costa Andrade e que vivi na advocacia e na relação com os Tribunais faz parte de uma nostalgia pelo sentido do Estado de Direito que parece não resistir à presente vaga de neopositivismo de uma hipocria de Estado de Legalidade, a tal que varia de modelo conforme os interesses dos gestores dos pequenos aparelhos de poder que têm soberania na mesa do orçamento."

Ataque ao rabo de Lénine

A AFP distribui hoje foto de um ataque à boma ao rabo de Lénine, mostrando "Des experts examinent les dégâts faits par une bombe sur une statue de Lénine, à Saint-Pétersbourg, le 1er avril 2009"