quarta-feira, 24 de setembro de 2008

{Spam?} ESTRATÉGIA EUROPEIA CONTRA-TERRORISTA

Contra-terrorismo. A nova estratégia europeia contraterrorista foi de tal modo edulcorada no Parlamento Europeu que “só depois de as pessoas terem morrido se poderão provar as intenções dos terroristas”.

L’UE progresse en vue d’une loi

sur la lutte contre le terrorisme 

Publié: mercredi 24 septembre 2008   

Le commissaire chargé de la Justice et de la sécurité Jacques Barrot a félicité le Parlement européen pour sa maturité et sa capacité de co-décision suite à l’adoption hier 23 septembre d’une nouvelle législation européenne pour lutter contre le  terrorisme. Cependant, il a regretté le fait que de grandes parties du texte ont été édulcorées.

Contexte:

Co-operation in the fight against terrorism intensified among EU countries after the 9/11 attacks in the US and even more so after the Madrid attacks in 2004. 

The EU Counter-terrorism Strategy is based on the four 'pillars' of prevention, protection, pursuit and response. It requires collaboration at national, European and international levels to reduce the threat of terrorism and the bloc's vulnerability to attack. It specifically aims to: 

  • prevent recruitment of terrorists
  • better protect potential targets
  • pursue and investigate members of existing networks, and; 
  • improve Europe's capability to respond to and manage the consequences of terrorist attacks. 

On 19 September 2007, Belgian lawyer Gilles de Kerchove was appointed to the brand new function of 'EU Counter-terrorism Coordinator'. In this role, he coordinates the work of the Council of the EU in the field of counter-terrorism and maintains an overview of all the instruments at the Union's disposal. 

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The legislative proposal, overwhelmingly approved by MEPs with 600 votes in favour, 21 against and 39 abstentions, will make it illegal to publicly incite people to commit terrorist offences and will outlaw terrorist recruitment and training. 

While Barrot welcomed the result of the vote, he lamented some of the amendments made to the language originally proposed by the Commission. "We would like to avoid having to wait until a terrorist attack is perpetrated before incriminating those who are planning it," he said, referring in particular to the decision of rapporteur French MEP Roselyne Lefrançois to substitute the term "provocation" with the term "incitement" to commit a terrorist offence. 

According to supporters of the Commission's proposal, this would effectively mean that "you can prove the terrorist intention only if people have already died," as MEP Herbert Pirker (EPP-ED, Austria) put it. But left MEPs took the opposite view, rejecting the proposed texts altogether and claiming that if adopted, they would become an instrument for political pressure against ideological opponents. 

"This will be an excuse to criminalise anyone who casts doubt over the capitalist system," said Greek MEP Athanasios Pafilis (GUE/NGL). 

A separate report establishing rules for processing personal data in the framework of police and judicial cooperation in criminal matters also gathered broad support in favour of substantially amending the Commission's proposals (556 votes in favour, 90 against and 19 abstentions). Indeed, MEPs insisted on strict guidelines out of concern that "the cure should not be worse than the disease" and that public freedoms should not pay the price for achieving a higher degree of public security. 

Of particular concern to Barrot was an amendment, introduced by rapporteur Martine Roure (France, PES), which calls for the establishment of a Working Party composed of member-state representatives and a secretariat provided by the Commission and responsible for drawing up an annual report with regard to the processing private data in the EU and third countries. Barrot nevertheless said the Commission would try to "draw the best" out of this evaluation mechanism. 

Positions:

Austrian EPP-ED MEP Herbert Pirker warned against "misplaced diluting" of anti-terrorist legislation when, in his words, as many as 300 Al-Qaeda cells are active in Europe

The Party of European Socialists issued a statement describing the agreement reached as "a lowest common denominator" and calling for further measures to improve the processing of private data. In particular, the PES group stands for prohibiting the use of data relative to ethnic origin, sexual orientation, health, religious or political beliefs. The text, initially proposed by the Council, allowed for such processing of data "only when this is strictly necessary and when the domestic law provides adequate standards". 

ALDE MEP Baroness Sarah Ludford (UK) commented on privacy protection regarding the use of personal data for policing and law enforcement by saying that the resulting text amounts to the "lowest common denominator". "We have seen the outrage in the UK of local councils having access to personal details, ostensibly kept for purposes of tackling terrorism and serious crime, to check up on eligibility for school places […] It is illegitimate to go on making laws like this without MEPs having the full right to co-decision. This is the price of the non-ratification of the Lisbon Treaty which will at last make EU policing laws transparent and democratic," said Sarah Ludford

Socialist MEP Iliana Malinova Iotova (Bulgaria) appealed for the strengthening of national supervisory authorities' powers in data protection and opposed the text proposed by the Council, which limits the scope of the data protection legislation in cases of "essential national security interests and specific intelligence activities in the field of national security". She warned that such wording would open the door for abuse. Iotova added that "national security" was a very wide concept, pointing to the recent situation in her country, where the State Agency for National Security had prevented a leakage of health files from the National Health Insurance Fund to private pharmaceutical businesses. 

Liens

Union européenne

 

POLITICA DO MAR

EU launches 'major' fisheries policy review

18 September 2008

EU fisheries policy will be "fully reviewed" with "major reform" proposed by 2012 at the latest, the EU executive announced yesterday (17 September). But environmental groups said "drastic and urgent" change would be required for European fisheries to become sustainable.

terça-feira, 23 de setembro de 2008

SITUAÇÃO INSUSTENTÁVEL

Défice comercial de Portugal

expandiu 29% até Março e taxa

de cobertura das exportações

reduziu para uns impossíveis 57%

 

O défice comercial português aumentou 29 por cento até Março, face a igual período do ano anterior… mas ainda "não se evidencia claramente o impacto do abrandamento da economia espanhola" que só se acentuou depois da Primavera.

 

A taxa de cobertura das importações pelas exportações, o valor das importações que é coberto pelas exportações, caiu 7,5 pontos percentuais e é agora de 57,2 por cento, apenas.

 

São dados do Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE) hoje divulgados. Dados a meditar. Com muita urgência. Sobretudo, estes impossíveis e impensáveis 57,2%... que criam uma situação impossível de sustentar.

 

JOHN ROBB

ONWARD TO A HOLLOW STATE

The modern nation-state is in a secular decline, made inevitable by the rise of a global market system. Even developed nations, like the US, are not immune to this process. The decline is at first gradual and then accelerates until it reaches a final end-point: a hollow state. The hollow state has the trappings of a modern nation-state ("leaders", membership in international organizations, regulations, laws, and a bureaucracy) but it lacks any of the legitimacy, services, and control of its historical counter-part. It is merely a shell that has some influence over the spoils of the economy. The real power rests in the hands of corporations and criminal/guerrilla groups that vie with each other for control of sectors of wealth production. For the individual living within this state, life goes on, but it is debased in a myriad of ways.

The shift from a marginally functional nation-state in manageable decline to a hollow state often comes suddenly, through a financial crisis. This crisis typically has the following features:

  • Corporations and connected individuals systematically loot the nation-state of financial assets and natural resources through a series of insider/no cost deals. These deals are made to "save" the nation's economy or financial system from collapse.
  • Once the full measure of the crisis is known, the nation-state's currency falls precipitously, it's debt becomes expensive, and it is forced to submit to international oversight/rules.
  • The services the state provides rapidly evaporate as its bureaucracy is starved for cash/financing. This opens up a window for the corruption of government employees unused to deprivation.

The Dynamic of Primary Loyalties

The decline from functional but weak nation-state is extremely sudden. For individuals, there is a rapid and sustained decline in the standard of living. Additionally, there are spot shortages of critical items and commodities -- particularly food, medicine, and energy (since these are globally fungible). Large and small business fail across the board, or become prey to connected companies/individuals with access to the remaining coercive power of the nation-state. As the deprivation becomes commonplace, people turn to primary loyalties for support and services -- loyalties to a corporation, tribe, gang, family, or community. These groups, energized by new levels of loyalty but deeply obligated to reciprocate this loyalty with support, become extremely aggressive in pursuit of their survival. Once this shift in loyalty is made, a self-generating cycle of violence, crime, and corruption (fueled in large part through connections to the global market system) becomes entrenched. The nation-state, at that point, becomes irretrievably hollow.

The Looting

It's instructive to view the US Treasury's plans for a bail-out of the global financial system through the lens of the hollow state. By this measure, the bailout as it stands today, is a form of financial looting of the US Treasury (it isn't socialism, since the government isn't nationalizing the financial system). Trillions of dollars in government monies ($700 billion to begin with) will be infused directly into the coffers of corporations and wealthy individuals (via hedge funds). Specifically, the plan buys toxic assets at inflated prices and sells them back for nearly nothing -- no equity or assets of real value are provided in exchange for the purchase. The national debt will likely grow 20-30% in a single year, with obligations extended to many trillions more in guarantees.

Given this, one potential next step forward is a decline the credit rating of US debt (which radically increases the costs of US borrowing), a collapse in the dollar relative to more stable global currencies, and a rapid decline in government services. Other scenarios achieve the same result with different timing. Regardless, our (the US and the UK) journey to a hollow state has officially begun.

NOTE: Philip Bobbitt got it wrong in his book, "The Shield of Achilles." The prosperous market-state he envisioned through constitutional reform isn't possible. The REAL market-state, the form of governance that that has truly embraced the global market system, is hollow. In effect, a state that doesn't place any barriers between itself and the global marketplace. As a result, the only real opportunities created by the emergence of the market-state are opportunities to steal extreme wealth.

INFOGUERRE

La stratégie de puissance de la Chine en Afrique

 

19-09-2008

La Chine souhaite clairement se positionner comme fournisseur, client et partenaire de privilège pour l'Afrique.

En 2005, 820 entreprises chinoises, dont un quart du secteur privé, sont présentes dans 49 pays d'Afrique avec un volume d'investissement équivalent à celui réalisé dans les pays de l'ASEAN (Association of SouthEast Asian Nations). En 2008, il y aurait près de 1 000 entreprises chinoises sur le sol africain. Aujourd'hui on estime à 150 000 le nombre de Chinois présents en Afrique, mais il doit être largement au dessous de la réalité. Les Chinois sont les plus nombreux au Zimbabwe et en Angola. Ils sont ensuite répartis le long de la côte de l'Afrique de l'Ouest et un peu partout sur le continent.

Pékin poursuit des objectifs autant économiques que politiques et stratégiques. L'intense activité diplomatique déployée par la Chine vers l'Afrique depuis les années 90 – avec son intégration à plusieurs structures internationales et régionales, la mise en place de structures adéquates pour rendre plus étroits ses liens sino-africains- s'inscrivent dans une même stratégie globale de sécurisation de ressources (énergétiques et matières premières) et de recherche de marchés pour ses multinationales émergeantes.

Les échanges politiques et économiques entre la Chine et l'Afrique témoignent du dynamisme de l'économie chinoise. Selon un article du Monde Diplomatique, l'Afrique a connu en 2005 son meilleur taux de croissance en trente ans : 5,8 %. Cela, en partie, grâce à l'investissement de la Chine. Mais ces investissements en Afrique ne sont pas sans poser des problèmes sur le long terme. Il sera difficile pour la Chine de vouloir s'imposer comme un acteur sur la scène mondiale si elle contourne les règles internationales dans ses relations avec l'Afrique.

Télécharger le PDF : La stratégie de puissance de la Chine en Afrique

A lire aussi sur Infoguerre :

·                                 Chinafrique : la stratégie d'influence de Pékin sur l'Afrique

·                                 Quand la Chine s'étendra...

·                                 La dynamique de puissance mondiale de la Chine

Pékin étend son influence sur l'hémisphère sud. Entretien avec François Lafargue

ALERTA VERMELHO

Défice comercial de Portugal

expandiu 29% até Março e taxa

de cobertura das exportações

reduziu para uns impossíveis 57%

 

O défice comercial português aumentou 29 por cento até Março, face a igual período do ano anterior… mas ainda "não se evidencia claramente o impacto do abrandamento da economia espanhola" que só se acentuou depois da Primavera.

 

A taxa de cobertura das importações pelas exportações, o valor das importações que é coberto pelas exportações, caiu 7,5 pontos percentuais e é agora de 57,2 por cento, apenas.

 

São dados do Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE) hoje divulgados. Dados a meditar. Com muita urgência. Sobretudo, estes impossíveis 57,2%...

segunda-feira, 22 de setembro de 2008

A Coluna do Correio da Manhã, de 20 Setembro 2008

Ver Claro

 

- Como antecipado aqui, o sistema financeiro vive a pior crise desde os anos trinta e a estagnação e a inflação cancerizam a economia. Focos de guerra aparecem, desde o Verão, nas fronteiras da Europa, na América do Sul e na Ásia... 2009 vai mesmo ser um ano negro. Uma imparável mudança de consequências imprevisíveis sacode o Planeta.

- A crise produz uma concentração inédita no mercado financeiro (com três ou quatro titãs a predominar) e gera novas regras. Um passo de gigante para o novo modelo global. O Mundo é já outro.

- Um susto foi como os ministros das Finanças viram a situação europeia na reunião do Ecofin. Mais assustados ficaram ao constatar que também aqui a Europa está desarmada.

- Crimeia, Perigo! Depois da amputação da Ossétia e da Abkázia à Geórgia, a Ucrânia teme que Moscovo ocupe a estratégica ‘ilha’ da Crimeia.

- A secreta georgiana conseguiu gravar as transmissões da invasão russa que provam que esta ocorreu na véspera do forcing georgiano na Ossétia...

- A al-Qaeda do Magrebe define como "inimigo" a abater o novo governo da Mauritânia...

- Luta da Gazprom com a União Europeia pelo gás nigeriano: Bruxelas oferece 15 mil milhões para construção de gasoduto e Moscovo um acordo de cooperação... 

José Mateus

 

 Consultor de Inteligência Competitiva

verclaro.jm@gmail.com

 

 

sexta-feira, 19 de setembro de 2008

GEOPOLÍTICA E GUERRA DA ENERGIA

EU and Russia in scramble for Nigerian gas 

Published: Thursday 18 September 2008   

The European Commission stepped up its quest to diversify the EU's energy supplies on Wednesday (17 September), offering financial and political support for a €15 billion trans-Saharan pipeline to carry natural gas from Nigeria to European markets. The move comes after Gazprom, the Russia energy giant, signed a memorandum of understanding with the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation in Moscow last week to co-operate on gas exploration, production and transportation, according to press reports. The simultaneous moves by Brussels and Moscow illustrate the scramble for natural resources as continued growth in the global economy fuels ever-increasing demand for energy.

More on this topic:

ListLinksDossier:   Geopolitics of EU energy supply

ListNews:   EU, Africa unveil 'ambitious' energy partnership

Other related news:

Nigeria "could be an important partner in EU's diversification efforts," said Ferran Tarradellas, spokesperson for EU Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs, who was in Nigeria last week.

"They have shown great interest in the project," Tarradellas told EurActiv, especially because the pipeline would help Nigeria deliver gas to its domestic market via a 1,050 km stretch running across its territory. Sonatrach, the Algerian state-owned energy group, is also understood to strongly support the pipeline.

However, Tarradellas said it was "too early" to make any formal budgetary commitments at this stage, adding that the European Commission had "means to finance feasibility studies" but not entire projects. The European Investment Bank could help finance construction but money would have to come mainly from the private sector, he explained. European oil companies, including Shell, Total, and ENI, "have made significant investments in Nigeria and are likely to invest more," he added.

The planned 4,300 km pipeline would stretch across Nigeria, Niger and Algeria, where gas would be shipped to Spain and Italy via the Medgazexternal and Galsiexternal  pipelines currently being developed or under construction. Its capacity would range from 20 billion cubic metres of gas per year (bcm/y) in 2015 and scaled up to 30bcm/y in 2030, according to a first project outline. According to the plan, construction would start in 2011, with the first gas expected to be delivered in 2015.

Tarradellas rejected suggestions that Gazprom's participation would create problems for the EU. "ExxonMobil is in Nigeria too and that does not pose us any problems," he said, adding that Gazprom was also seeking to diversify its supplies. "If Gazprom makes investments, they are free to do it, I don't see why this should pose us a problem." "Gas is a commodity that needs to be regulated by market rules."

Links

EU official documents

Press articles

 

quinta-feira, 18 de setembro de 2008

JOHN ROBB

Information Cascades

Information cascades are important. They explain many of the big problems we currently face. Here's how an information cascade works:

1) An event occurs or a problem surfaces.

2) A person who is perceived to have good data/insight into the event or problem makes a decision.

3) Other people, observing the first person's decision, opt to avoid original analysis/discovery and copy the earlier decision.

4) The more people that copy the earlier decisions, the less likely any new discovery or analysis is done.

If the earliest decision was correct, then everything works out. If it isn't, the error is compounded until it becomes a major problem when it collapses. In today's world, with its copious communications systems, information cascades occur with increasing rapidity. They can spiral out of control in hours/days. This also means that on the flip side, an information cascade can collapse suddenly, when the original decision(s) is(are) proven wrong.

An information cascade is a good explanation for why the financial industry became so hopelessly lost. They based their decisions on economic and financial theories that claimed to have predictive power in EXTREMELY complex domains (since this methodology came from careful study in academia, it was assumed to be correct). The information cascade was the rampant application of these theoretical models throughout the financial industry over decades. However, as Nassim Taleb (although the writing is often tough to decipher) points out in this brief, the true predictive capacity of these models was nil/nul/void, since they are extremely vulnerable to black swans -- the collapse of the massive hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management proved this point nearly a decade ago. So, what happened when the black swan arrived that demonstrated that these models were wrong? The system imploded as confidence in all of the previous decisions made with those models are called into question (the information cascade collapsed).

In warfare, information cascades can generate disasters too. For example, the government's recent claims of success in Iraq (although better models of the conflict indicate that this is a temporary lull, far from "victory") can lead to similar adventures in the future (as we are seeing that now in Afghanistan) as the press and population echos the assessment. Finally, information cascades also can work as a means of disruption. As a guerrilla, information cascades can turn an attack on nominally stable social systems into a systempunkt (the critical point within a system, that if attacked, amplifies damage throughout the entire network). Fore example, think 9/11 or the Golden Mosque.

 

Transparência Indispensável

BRUXELAS QUER AS ONG

MUITO MENOS OPACAS...

 

Bruxelles devrait examiner les ONG de plus près


17 septembre 2008


Alors que les organisations de la société civile exercent une influence grandissante dans l'élaboration des politiques européennes, elles sont néanmoins de plus en plus appelées à montrer plus de transparence dans leurs objectifs et leurs sources de financement. …

terça-feira, 16 de setembro de 2008

Vasco Pulido Valente

O mundo muda e Portugal não se adapta

«Portugal está sem destino. Deixou de ser um país colonial. Já não é um "bom aluno da "Europa". Pior ainda, apesar de muito esforço e muita propaganda, não se conseguiu "modernizar". O "atraso" continua e até aumentou.

Não se vive hoje como se vivia durante Salazar, mas também não se vive numa mediocridade tranquila. Pelo contrário, o mundo muda e a insegurança cresce. O mundo muda e Portugal não se adapta: o desemprego cresce; as pensões diminuem, a educação é um artifício, o serviço de saúde vai pouco a pouco empobrecendo e a fisco oprime toda gente. No meio disto, o país não quer, nem está à espera de nenhuma reviravolta dramática. A "Europa", por que antigamente suspirava, obriga à imobilidade. É uma espécie de paragem definitiva, para além da qual nada existe - é pelo menos, por enquanto, um verdadeiro "fim da história".

De resto, trinta e tal anos de regime criaram um cinismo político geral. À volta do PS e do PSD há meia dúzia de fanáticos, que ninguém leva a sério, e uma corte de carreiristas, que ninguém respeita. Tendo governado o país simultânea ou alternadamente, nem o PS nem o PSD inspiram hoje qualquer confiança. Colonizaram o Estado e a administração local por interesse próprio e cometeram (ou permitiram que se cometessem) erros sem desculpa. Desorganizaram a sociedade, ou mesmo impedirem que ela se fosse por sua vontade organizando, e levaram Portugal a uma espécie de paralisia de que não se vê saída. Apesar de um ou outro protesto melancólico e corporativo, o público já não se interessa pelo seu futuro, ou pelo seu presente, colectivo.

Nem Sócrates, nem Ferreira Leite percebem, no fundo, o que se passa. Sócrates persiste em repetir a sua velha ladainha, inteiramente desacreditada, com o entusiasmo de 2006. Ferreira Leite (a "tia Manuela", como agora popularmente lhe chamam) critica a evidência e recomenda os remédios do costume. Cada um à sua maneira, os dois falam uma nova "língua de pau", que os portugueses não ouvem ou que não registam. Talvez por isso, não falam muito e quando falam, excepto pelas querelas de partido e pelo vaguíssimo contraste entre o maior "liberalismo" de Ferreira Leite e o improvisado "neo-keynesianismo" de Sócrates, concordam no essencial. O PS e o PSD são o regime e não podem ou tencionam tocar no regime. A reforma de Portugal, se por absurdo vier, não virá dali.»

Vasco Pulido Valente, no  Público

 

BIG CRASH 2008