Resilience Judo, by John Robb

Resilience Judo

There are growing signs -- from a black swan in savings/debt reduction to massive debt loads to quarterly trillion dollar losses in personal wealth to stagnant/falling consumer purchases to persistently low consumer confidence -- that the parasite ridden American "consumer" is finally dead.   If this is true, the economic model of the latter half of the last Century is likely dead too, and that will mean wrenching change.  It's my belief that the dominant solution is to prepare for a local future to ride out this storm.  Here are some of my random (more random than I would like) thoughts on what you should do to prepare:

• Ruthlessly reduce debt. Nothing on credit. Pay off every loan. Strategically walk away from underwater assets (like homes that are worth less than the mortgage).  This will allow you to stay one step ahead of the death throes of the old economy.
• Turn your hollow home into a productive asset.  Most homes are devoid of any productive capacity.  Adding energy, food, etc production to them turns them into real, productive assets.  Get your assets out of financial derivatives (stocks, bonds, etc.) as fast as you can and put them into productive assets (not commodities) you can touch.
• Make everything you can yourself.  Grow your own food.  Produce your own energy.  Make/repair your own clothes.  Turn costs into savings.  Reskill to do this.  The new "fashionable trend" isn't what you can buy, it's what you can make.  Anyone that buys "designer or branded" anything is a fool.
• Work online.  Convert your skills into something that can be sold electronically (most of my complex work is done this way).   Develop the skills necessary to work as part of a virtual team.  Telecommute whenever possible (and push to do this, even if it means less money), reduce the number of cars/dress clothes/etc you own in synch with this conversion (and move to a less expensive locale when possible!).   Always have two jobs going at the same time.
• Build a local business.  Own assets that produce and sell that production locally.  Even if it is small, it will help down the line via contact networks/experience (a new spin on modern "networking").  Develop the niche skills that sell locally. Group/tribe up when possible to tackle larger opportunities.
• Barter.  Cashless trades.  Convert what you have to what you need.  Skill set bartering is amazingly effective.  Become part of a local barter network (the backchannel).
• Bring your family home.  Grow your home to accommodate more people.  Bring back parents and grown kids (with their families).  This will allow you to pool incomes and radically reduce workload/costs.  It's also beneficial for security.  NOTE:  I've found that consideration/compromise is the best way to handle an expansive family home environment.  
• Suggestions welcome!! 

This change doesn't require cute and crunchy notions about "lifestyle" environmentalism.  It's all about mitigation of stresses in the short to medium term as living conditions deteriorate, while at the same time preparing to ride the resilient community wave to rapid and sustained long term success/wealth.

Posted by John Robb on Tuesday, 30 June 2009 at 02:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

 

OS NOMES DA CRISE…

"La crise financière et économique mondiale"
| Résumé 

Edito .

Ne prononcez pas son nom
Edito de Didier Heiderich
Uniquement disponible sur le pdf
http://www.communication-sensible.com/download/cccnl0017.pdf

Sommaire

Interview de Denis Marquet, directeur de l'information à la direction de la communication Société Générale
Interview réalisée par Thierry Libaert
Un an après le 1er anniversaire de la fraude exceptionnelle à la Société Générale, il nous a semblé intéressant de rencontrer un des participants à la cellule de crise, directement concerné par les enjeux de communication. Lire

« Plus qu'hier et bien moins que demain », la communication de crise dans le domaine financier
Par Éric Giuily
Hier considérées comme un fait extraordinaire, les crises font désormais partie du quotidien des entreprises comme des institutions publiques. Pour y faire face, les unes et les autres ont intégré dans leur fonctionnement des modes de gestion dont l'objet est de tenter de circonscrire la crise aux frontières de l'organisation et ainsi l'en préserver. Lire
 

En période de crise, pensez à communiquer en interne
Par Phénélope Sémavoine
Alors que nous vivons une crise sans précédent qui touche tous les secteurs de l'économie, nulle organisation n'est à l'abri. Restructurations, fusions-acquisitions, remplacement de cadres dirigeants et plans de rigueur budgétaire sont autant de changements qui suscitent de nombreuses inquiétudes à tous les niveaux de l'entreprise. Lire

La communication RH pour restaurer la confiance
Par Marc-Edouard Brunelet
Sans être à l'origine de la détérioration de la relation salariés/entreprise, la crise financière et ses nombreux impacts économiques et sociaux semblent avoir pour effet la cristallisation voire l'aggravation de la perte de confiance des salariés et leur démobilisation subséquente. Lire

La crise et le luxe : quelles marges de manœuvre en matière de communication ?
Par Rita Fahd
Le luxe, à l'image de nombreux marchés est pénalisé par les difficultés conjoncturelles liées à la crise financière. Les actions des leaders mondiaux ont fortement chuté en 2008, en particulier les cours de LVMH (Louis Vuitton, Chaumet, TAG Heuer, etc.) et de Richemont (Jaeger-Lecoultre, Piaget, Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels, etc.). L'activité est mal orientée pour nombre d'acteurs. Lire

La crise entre risques et opportunités dans un monde en devenir
Par Didier Heiderich
Tout semble avoir été dit sur la crise financière et économique qui ne semble être qu'à ses débuts avec un effet domino dévastateur pour l'ensemble de l'économie mondiale. Entre action et communication, nombre de médecins sont au chevet du malade. L'angoisse du lendemain se cristallise et fige les acteurs économiques sur l'ensemble de la planète.Lire

Na Coluna de hoje no "CM"

Ver claro

"Buy China"

Pequim arrasou os ingénuos ocidentais, que contavam com o mercado chinês para alavancar a saída da crise, ao mandar "comprar chinês", no seu programa (...)

Ver Claro

Do G20 ao G2

 Na coluna do "Correio da Manhã"

John Robb

SOBRE O NOVO MODELO ENERGÉTICO

A mudança de modelo económico global em curso isupõe, imnplica e induz uma mudança radical do modelo energético actual, baseado nos hidrocarbonetos. Dito de outro modo, a era do petróleo está esgotada (não o petróleo) e procuramos o modelo (e as suas tecnologias) para sair definitivamente dela. O debate desse modelo é, portanto, uma questão crucial… Aqui se regista uma oportuna contribuição do tech-guru John Robb:

CENTRALIZED OR DECENTRALIZED ENERGY?

There's little doubt that the centralization (the current approach) of alternative energy production is more efficient than decentralization.  It enables location optimization (better wind/sunlight), less management/industrial overhead per kWh, etc.  It also leverages the existing industry design.  However, this efficiency gain comes at a potentially fatal cost (which implies that most of the money currently being invested in this area, is going to be wasted).  Here's why:

• In order for alternative energy -- particularly solar PV -- to reach its potential, it must go through a rapid series of generational improvements in technology.  Each generation will be much more economical than the preceding generation.  Since, the volatility of energy prices has already dried up investments in new drilling in the oil sector: is little reason to doubt that it wouldn't be even worse in the alternative energy due to technological risk (as in, the tech used will go rapidly out of date in a handful of years).  Given both sources of risk, corporate angst goes off of the scale.
• Centralized generation requires the construction of vast amount of electrical transmission infrastructure.  The combination of NIMBY (not in my back yard) opposition and a legacy of negligible investments in new electrical transmission infrastructure over the last 30 years, implies that this unlikely.  
• The costs of centralized production can only draw on government and corporate financing.  Even if we see another financial bubble emerge (unlikely), it's uncertain whether there will be remotely enough financial capital necessary for anything more than a minimal transformation in mid to long term time horizons.  The government is tapped and the financial system is on life support (it's rife with zombie banks).

In fact, this situation is very similar to something seen in the computing industry, and why a decentralized model emerged.  In that previous situation, there were attempts to centralize all computing and provide terminals to end-users (France's Minitel and Oracle's Network Computers).  There were also attempts to provide interactive multimedia through boxes that provided interactive TV (ala 1994).  However, in all of these cases the rate of change, the amount of required investment, the speed of end-user innovation, etc.  doomed these attempts to failure.  The same is likely true for alternative energy.  The best approach, and the only one likely to succeed, is the decentralized model.  To goose it, a variant of the following should occur (with, or without, official sanction):

• Personal decision making.  Capital, currently tied up in malfunctioning financial markets, must be unleashed at the individual level.  The energy IRA/401K is a dominant approach since it combines long time horizons, a massive pool of capital, and the ability to turn existing costs into revenue.  Further, since decision making is decentralized (rather than being routed through a predatory financial system), the allocation of this available capital will be much more efficient than centralized approaches (to new methods, tech, etc.).
• A network.  Use of the existing transmission grid at the local level must allow free riders.  In the very same way the early Internet rode on the back of the telephone system, decentralized alternative energy must be able to ride freely on the back of the existing local transmission grid (microgrids).  The goal:  "plug-n-play" utilization.
• A platform.  Finally, a standardized modular approach to the elements necessary for alternative energy must be established.  This would allow improved technologies, particularly new PV modules, to snap into existing installations.  We should use the way standards developed and were codified on the Internet as a starting point for this effort.  

Again, critical responses are welcome.

Posted by John Robb on Sunday, 14 June 2009 at 03:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (19) | TrackBack (0)

JOHN ROBB: SOBRE ENERGIA E

COMIDA NOS PRÓXIMOS ANOS

The American consumer is likely dead.  A new frugality has swept the nation in an attempt to ward off lower standards of living in the future.  The question now becomes: what comes after frugality?  The answer is based on the following observations/assumptions:

• High debt (up to 375% of GDP, 85% over the peak in 1929, in the US and still growing) and the death of the American consumer will lead to slow or negative growth in GDP for years to come.  This means that liquid financial assets will generate low returns for as far as the eye can see.
• Financial markets are only suitable for sophisticated participants (despite claims to the contrary) and not accessible by the average citizen. Scams, booms/busts, and all sorts of predatory behavior abounds -- and the government has become completely unable to mitigate it.   
• Costs, for most basic elements of life such as food/energy, will rapidly increase over the next decade.  Whether it is peak oil (or its cousin, faster growth in demand for energy than supply is able to provide), out of control inflation (the fed attempts to inflate our way out of our debts), a weak job market (which depresses incomes), etc. these costs will likely outpace incomes.

The solution on an idea that should be apparent, but maybe not to most.  Simply, that the ownership of productive assets (essentially, those assets that generate goods/services that can be sold) is vastly superior to ownership their financial derivatives (stock funds, retirement accounts, etc.) -- we once were a nation of entrepreneurs, now we are a nation of indentured servants.  

A Real Ownership Society

The judo move to pull this off is the creation of community -- county, town, neighborhood, etc. -- funds/mechanisms that enable individuals to move a portion of their tattered/depleted tax protected savings in IRAs/401ks into accounts that build/own/operate local solar energy production and food production.  At the entry level, the capacity required is only aimed at one customer: the investor.   With the long lead time and preferential treatment of tax deferred retirement savings, this mechanism has the ability to offset the extremely long payoff cycles of local solar/food investments and thereby turn cost centers into savings vehicles.

The typical solar transaction would look like this (I'm using aggressive numbers):

Cost per kWh:  $0.20 

Installation of a 8,400 watt solar PV system (able to generate 10,000 kWh per year in New England):  $62k after tax treatment

Return on investment (if retail rates are paid):  $2,000 per year or 2.4% on the investment.

If the payment to the account for the electricity is tax deductible (assuming a 20% bracket) as an investment, that return jumps to:  $2,400 or 3.9%.

Not a bad rate of return, if you can achieve it, particularly if you consider the benefits of turning a cost center (the money you pay for electrical energy currently) into a savings mechanism.  Further, as returns accumulate, it makes possible new investments in productive systems with additional cash flow opportunity.  

Apply the same methodology to lawn gardening or farm "shares/subscriptions" and the same results are likely to apply.  Food expenses are turned into savings.  Ownership of local food production is the result.

Please feel free to critique this concept: or provide new insight that could make it better. 

Posted by John Robb on Saturday, 13 June 2009 at 12:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (21) | TrackBack (0)

TRAGÉDIA DA AIR FRANCE

Pista terrorista

CONFIRMA-SE !

No "Correio da Manhã" de sábado passado, dia 06 de Junho, na coluna "Ver Claro" revelámos a pista terrorista na origem da tragédia do voo 447 da Air France... Hoje, L'Express e The Sun confirmam-na.

Ver Claro

Na Coluna do "Correio da Manhã", deste sábado:

Pista terrorista O Ministério francês da Defesa insiste em não afastar a "pista terrorista" no desaparecimento do Airbus da Air France, ocorrido na véspera da visita de Obama a Riade e ao Cairo e... Continua AQUI

Uma ameaça e não uma protecção é como a Europa está a ser apercebida pelos europeus, diz o conselheiro especial de Sarkozy... Continua AQUI

Pequim falha no controlo a Pyongyang… Continua AQUI

Christian Harbulot, o mestre europeu da Inteligência Económica, proferiu esta semana no Taguspark… Continua AQUI

China amordaça a web 2.0, para evitar referências ao 20.º aniversário do massacre de Tiananmen… Continua AQUI