Iran, Israel and Missiles
"Hopefully, this event (the Iranian test firing of intermediate rang missiles), it will serve as a catalyst that will finally gel all of the different factors that have been out there that will allow us then to act with our friends and allies in a most effective fashion and modify Iranian behavior, but we cannot allow a second Holocaust." John McCain (July 9th, 2008)
The wild card in any potential conflict between the West and Iran has always been Israel. It alone considers Iran + nuclear weapons an existential threat (the lack of identifiable existential threats to the West is the primary reason conventional warfare in an age of global interconnectivity will become very rare). As a result, Israel has been engaged in a fierce internal debate over whether to accept Iranian nuclear development (which, according to Israeli estimates reaches a tipping point in the spring of 2009) or delay the program through an attack. Iran nearly decided that debate with this week's very provocative and well timed missile tests (particularly of Shahab-3, a missile with a range of 1,250 miles). Missile launches are the ultimate in provocation given that Israeli civilians, less than two years ago, suffered a month long barrage of Iranian missiles -- if this had occurred against US civilians, we would have already attacked/invaded. This, in combination with uncertainty of the upcoming US elections (see McCain's 'greenlight' above), makes an attack by Israel on Iran almost certain.
NOTE: Thomas Barnett is thinking along similar lines with "All systems go for war."
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