quarta-feira, 5 de agosto de 2009

John Robb, in Global Guerrillas

Dragon Kings vs. Black Swans.   

Basically, the argument is that some Black Swans can turn into self-perpetuating systems due to feedback loops.  These self-referencing systems cause more damage or grow to greater heights than any power law distribution would predict.  I concur, but this sounds like Ilya Prigogine's "dissipative structures" theory.  It may be a good explanation for what is going on now: a financial black swan has created feedback loops (as in:  consumer behavior has shifted, potentially irrevocably...) that will create a dynamic that will sink the legacy global economy.  The system may be bifurcating.

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