Ripley, an award-winning writer on homeland security for Time, offers a compelling look at instinct and disaster response as she explores the psychology of fear and how it can save or destroy us. Surprisingly, she reports, mass panic is rare, and an understanding of the dynamics of crowds can help prevent a stampede, while a well-trained crew can get passengers quickly but calmly off a crashed plane. Using interviews with survivors of hotel fires, hostage situations, plane crashes and, 9/11, Ripley takes readers through the three stages of reaction to calamity: disbelief, deliberation and action. The average person slows down, spending valuable minutes to gather belongings and check in with others. The human tendency to stay in groups can make evacuation take much longer than experts estimate. Official policy based on inaccurate assumptions can also put people in danger; even after 9/11, Ripley says, the requirement for evacuation drills on office buildings is inadequate. Ripley's in-depth look at the psychology of disaster response, alongside survivors' accounts, makes for gripping reading, sure to raise debate as well as our awareness of a life-and-death issue. 8 pages of color photos. (June)
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Review
"Amanda Ripley takes us on a sometimes stunning, sometimes sobering journey through disaster, using great stories and respected science to show why some prevail and others do not. The Unthinkable isn't merely a book about disaster; it's a book about survival — maybe yours."
——Gavin de Becker, author of the New York Times bestseller The Gift of Fear
"With The Unthinkable, Amanda Ripley succeeds in two different ways. First, she covers, with great clarity and accuracy, the science of how the body and mind respond to crisis. In the process, she prescribes certain actions that will increase the chances of surviving a disaster. But it's the second aspect, the stories, that makes the book so compelling. These tales leave your viscera enflamed because they compel two questions: 'What would it feel like to go through that?' and 'Would I do the right thing and survive?' This is an irresistible book."
—Robert M. Sapolsky, John A. and Cynthia Fry Gunn Professor of Biological Sciences and Professor of Neurology and Neurological Sciences at Stanford University
"The Unthinkable is the most magnificent account of a survivor's mind that I have ever read. It has helped me know and accept some of my reactions during my 72 day ordeal in the Andes. I can now understand how fear motivated me, and how denial also played a part. This book will help those who've never faced disaster to understand their own behavior and be prepared should their luck run out one day."
—Nando Parrado, New York Times bestselling author of Miracle in the Andes
"The Unthinkable reveals why, under the same circumstances, some people caught up in a disaster survive and others do not. Why some are hopelessly immobilized by fear and crippled by panic, and others are filled with strength, endurance, reactions and the other intrinsic stuff of which Homeric heroes are made. How can we ensure which we will be? In her well-crafted prose, Amanda Ripley shows us all how to prepare to meet danger and increase our chances of surviving the unthinkable."
—Bruce Henderson, New York Times bestselling author of Down to the Sea and True North
"When a disaster occurs we invariably learn the "what" of the event -- how many died, how many survived. Amanda Ripley's riveting The Unthinkable provides genuine insight into the "why" behind the numbers. This remarkable book will not only change your life, it could very well save it."
—Gregg Olsen, New York Times bestselling author of The Deep Dark: Disaster and Redemption in America's Richest Silver Mine
"Ever fantasize about what you would do in a disaster? How would you survive? How would you behave? After interviewing survivors of the World Trade Center attack, Amanda Ripley sifted through amazing tales of survivors from other disasters and mined various sociological, psychological, and neurological studies. Her insights are absolutely fascinating, and they could come in handy one day."
——Walter Isaacson, author of the New York Times bestsellers Einstein: His Life and Universe and Benjamin Franklin: A Life, and Vice-Chairman of the Louisiana Recovery Authority
"Rich in information about the subconscious ways we face danger. In the event that someday you face a sudden life or death situation, reading this book will increase the odds that the outcome will be life."
——David Ropeik, author of Risk!: A Practical Guide for Deciding What's Really Safe and What's Really Dangerous in the World Around You
"Reading The Unthinkable will be life-changing. We live in an age of anxiety that has too many of us rocked back on our heels. Once you've feasted on the rich insights and wisdom of this remarkable book, you'll be standing tall again. While our politicians and media have been keen to exploit and fan our worst fears, Amanda Ripley makes clear that individually and collectively we can meet head-on the hazards that periodically befall us. We need not be afraid!"
——Stephen Flynn, Senior Fellow for National Security Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, and author of The Edge of Disaster: Rebuilding a Resilient Nation
"The Unthinkable is a fascinating, in-depth look at human behavior under extreme pressure. Its gut-wrenching stories span the full spectrum of action under duress, from panic to heroism. Not only is this book fast-paced and engrossing, it's illuminating."
——Michael Tougias, author of Fatal Forecast: An Icredible True Tale of Disaster and Survival at Sea
"Amanda Ripley has written a smart, poignant account about the dramas of the existential moment in this new century. She is a provocative voice of a new generation of writers and thinkers whose grasp of daily events and global disaster is piquant, engrossing, and syncretic. Above all, she makes sense of life today in an entirely entertaining and accessible way-- all with a brimming dollop of optimism. If you ever wondered, 'What would I do if the unthinkable happened to me,' you hold the answer in your hands."
—Doug Stanton, author of the New York Times bestseller In Harm's Way: The Sinking of the USS Indianapolis and the Extraordinary Story of Its Survivors
"A must read. We need books like this to help us understand the world in which we live."
—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author The Black Swan and Fooled By Randomness
See all Editorial Reviews The Unthinkable: Who Survives When Disaster Strikes, by Amanda Ripley (Crown, 288 pp., $24.95)
I'm living, breathing proof that you can survive a disaster. I've lived through two airplane crashes ("catastrophic mishaps" in Air Force jargon), one at the start and one near the end of my Air Force piloting career, as well as a countless number of close calls in between. Unfortunately, I've never been able to understand fully why I was so successful at navigating disaster and others in similar circumstances weren't. There hasn't been a source of solid thinking on the subject until now. Amanda Ripley's new book, The Unthinkable, is a riveting exploration of the factors that dictate whether you will live through or perish in a disaster—if you're ever unlucky enough to confront one.
Based on my experience, the top objective in all catastrophes is to move to a safe zone and take as many people with you as you can. While this goal may seem simple, achieving it during the onrush of chaos isn't. Thinking clearly during a crisis is tough, for reasons more complex than we realize. Ripley shows us what stands in our way as we navigate what she calls the "survival arc," which consists of two phases: denial and deliberation.
Denial keeps you from realizing that you are in danger. It's rooted in bad risk assessment, overconfidence, and a lack of relevant experience. Bouts with denial can delay your response, as Ripley illustrates through the testimony of Elia Zedeno, who relates her painfully slow escape from the 73rd floor of Tower One on September 11. Once you realize the extent of the peril, though, fear might take over. Deliberation requires overcoming fear to regain the ability to think clearly. Ripley tells the story of U.S. Ambassador Diego Asencio, taken hostage by armed assault on the Dominican Republic's embassy in Bogota, Colombia. His experience put him through Ripley's survival arc, and it was only through a period of "self-talk"—in which he realized that he was more worried about dishonorable conduct than death—that he overcame his mind-numbing fear. Asencio's initial passivity is also common among groups. Contrary to popular understanding, group behavior during disasters is rarely panic-driven, but more often extremely docile and overly polite. Getting a group to respond and act effectively often requires aggressive behavior, like barking orders.
The book's best parts are Ripley's explorations of the roots of fear and how to overcome it. Fear is a deep evolutionary response that changes our biology so that we can respond to danger. It's regulated by a part of the brain called the amygdala and catalyzed by the hormones cortisol and adrenaline. Unfortunately, as the amygdala takes control, it deprives us of our higher mental functions and can induce everything from tunnel vision to time compression to extreme dissociation (out-of-body experiences). In short, in complex disasters, the biological-fear response can slow thinking so severely that it can kill you.
We can counter fear, however. The best method, FBI trainers say, is to get control of your breathing. "Combat breathing" is a simple variant on Lamaze or yoga training—breathe in four counts, hold four counts, exhale four counts, and repeat. It works because breathing is a combination of the somatic (which we control) and the autonomic (which we can't easily control) nervous systems. Regulation of the autonomic system deescalates the biological-fear response and returns our higher-level brain functions to full capacity. So one of the best ways you can prepare yourself to overcome fear in a crisis is as simple as a meditation, Lamaze, or yoga class.
Fortunately, in many disasters, someone is often biologically and psychologically well-suited for dealing with the chaos. Such people typically are the most likely to survive or to shepherd a docile group of survivors out of a disaster zone. What makes them different? Some have a natural psychological buffer that allows them to bounce back from extreme stress. Examination of people who always perform well in extreme circumstances has shown high levels in the blood of "neuropeptide Y"—a compound that allows one to stay mentally focused under stress. It's so closely correlated with success in pressure situations that it is almost a biological marker for selection into elite groups for military special operations.
If you're lucky enough to have someone like this in your group during a disaster, your chances of survival are much better. But even those of us not so disposed can, through training and experience, manufacture a workable degree of self-confidence.
This discussion only scratches the surface of Ripley's fascinating book. For those curious about how and why people react to stressful situations in the ways they do, or are looking for pointers on how to survive a disaster, The Unthinkable is the place to start.
John Robb is a writer, entrepreneur, and former USAF pilot in special operations. He is the author of Brave New War (Wiley) and runs the blog Global Guerrillas. He was named one of Esquire's Best and Brightest for 2007.
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